Top Fundraising States for GOP Hold Some Surprises

Which U.S. states are the Republicans' BFFs (that's "best friends forever," if you’re unfamiliar with teenager texting lingo) when it comes to presidential fundraising? We at CMDI decided to dig into the donor data to find out.In order to normalize the giving data, this examination only includes FEC filings for all Republican presidential candidates during the primaries of 2004, 2008 and 2012. As the general elections are still in play for 2012, we didn't want to skew the data. The goal was to determine which states are most rabid in their financial support for their favorite Republican candidate. 

Top 10 Most Active Fundraising States

This category didn't hold any surprises. The more populous states should, in theory, generate the largest number of political donations. This premise held mostly true and the top 10 winners in terms of total number of political donations are:

1. California (#1  of 50 in total population)
2. Texas (#2 in total population)
3. Florida (#4 in total population)
4. New York (#3 in total population)
5. Pennsylvania (#6 in total population)
6. Ohio (#7 in total population)
7. Georgia (#9 in total population)
8. Illinois (#5 in total population)
9. Virginia (#12 in total population)
10. Michigan (#8 in total population)

We see that Virginia is punching above their weight. Virginia ranks ninth in terms of number of gifts versus 12th in terms of population. I attribute their enthusiasm for presidential politics due to their proximity to Washington DC. 

Top 10 States for Max-Out Presidential Donations

A max-out donation is when an individual donor gives the maximum contribution amount allowable by the FEC. Each cycle the amount is a little different. In 2004, the max-out donation limit was $2,000. During the 2008 primaries, the limit was $2,300 and this year, the limit is $2,500. This mathematical nuance added an extra twist to our number crunching but, we didn't expect any surprises.  We assumed that the total max-out political donations count for each state would reflect general population sizes. We were wrong.

1. Texas (#2  of 50 in terms of total population)
2. California (#1 in population)
3. New York (#3 in population)
4. Florida (#4 in population)
5. Massachusetts (#14 in population)
6. New Jersey (#11 in population)
7. Illinois (#5 in population)
8. Connecticut (#29 in population)
9. Utah (#35 in population)
10. Ohio (#7 in population)

The big shockers were Utah and Connecticut. Yes Connecticut is more affluent then most states but placing 8th in terms of total max-out donations even though they are 29th in terms of population is a pretty big jump. Just out of curiosity, I checked where CT was in terms of their total number of Republican presidential donations and they were right where they were suppose to be, 27th place. It is amazing that they have so many max out donations.Utah makes a little more sense. Besides Utah traditionally being a red state, Mitt Romney, who has big ties to the Utah community, has participated in both the 2008 primaries and won the 2012  primaries. Regardless, Utah has a tremendous number of max-out gifts for only being the 35th largest state in terms of population and 17th largest state in terms of total Republican presidential donations. 

Top 10 States for Most Max-outs as a Percentage of Donations

This is where the rubber really hits the road. We wanted to see which states are really opening their wallets for their favorite Republican candidate. The following ratings are based on the number of max-out gifts as a percentage of total donations to Republican presidential primary campaigns. Our guts tell us that we will see a confluence of traditional red states" and affluent states jumping to the top of the list.

1. Connecticut (7.52% of donations are max-outs)
2. New York (6.35% of donations are max-outs)
3. Massachusetts (5.36% of donations are max-outs)
4. Utah (4.54% of donations are max-outs)
5. Texas (4.18% of donations are max-outs)
6. New Jersey (3.71% of donations are max-outs)
7. Nevada (3.66% of donations are max-outs)
8. Wyoming (3.61% of donations are max-outs)
9. California (3.35% of donations are max-outs)
10. Florida (3.26% of donations are max-outs)

* The District of Columbia at a 9.98% max-out gift rate was not included in this top ten list as we consider DC citizens professional politicos.Well, we were partially correct. Connecticut, New York and my fair Commonwealth of Massachusetts are affluent. They are certainly not red states. In the past 5 presidential elections (1992-2008), these states along with New Jersey, and California gave the Democratic candidate a margin of victory of over 10%. These are definitely blue states.It’s interesting that first place Connecticut's percentage is twice as large as number 10 Florida. The average percentage across all states was 2.45 percent. The only true red states in the top 10 list are Utah, Texas and Wyoming.Lets look at affluence. If we look at these states in terms of median household income, we find that  40% of the top ten max-out donation states are on the list: Connecticut (#3 in median income), Massachusetts (#6),  New Jersey (#2), and California (#9).Here is where our premise starts to hold water; the true red states, Utah, Texas, and Wyoming are well represented in the top 10 Republican donation states, even though they are lower on the affluence scale. Utah is ranked 14th in terms of median income, Nevada is 18th, and Texas is 25th.The two states that completely go against our theory are Florida and New York. New York is a blue state and they sit in 15th place in terms of affluence. Florida is a swing state but is only in 38th place in terms of affluence. Florida is actually easily explained by their massive political importance during the last few cycles and their large population of retirees.New York can be explained by the fact that it is the ancestral home of the U.S. financial industry. Bankers' and brokers' interests are tightly aligned with Washington and their pockets are deep. It is reasonable to assume that they would provide max-out donations to both Republicans and Democrats.I know what you really want to know is which state has the fewest max-out Republican donations in terms of a percentage of all gifts. This honor goes to Alaska with only 0.24% of their gifts being the maximum amount a donor can give. 

---

A version of this post was also published on the Campaigns & Elections Campaign Insider blog.